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Back to Learn
KnowledgeLayer 3Pattern Recognition

Trend Analysis

Your dashboard shows last week was up 12%.

But is that good? Was the week before down 15%?

You can see today's number. You can't see where it's heading.

Numbers tell you where you are. Trends tell you where you are going.

8 min read
intermediate
Relevant If You're
Tracking metrics that change over time
Needing early warning when something starts declining
Reporting on progress without manual spreadsheet work

INTERMEDIATE - Turns raw data points into directional signals.

Where This Sits

Category 3.3: Pattern Recognition

3
Layer 3

Understanding & Analysis

Pattern ExtractionAnomaly DetectionTrend AnalysisCorpus Analysis
Explore all of Layer 3
What It Is

Seeing direction, not just position

You have a number. Support tickets this week: 47. Is that good or bad? It depends entirely on what came before. If last week was 45 and the week before was 43, you're looking at an upward trend. If last week was 52 and the week before was 58, you're looking at improvement.

Trend analysis takes sequential data points and extracts the underlying direction. It answers the question every decision-maker actually cares about: are things getting better or getting worse?

This isn't just about drawing lines on charts. It's about detecting when a metric starts moving in a new direction before it becomes obvious. Catching a slow decline at week 3 is better than noticing it at week 12.

Get it wrong and you react to noise instead of signal. Get it right and you see problems before they become crises.

The Lego Block Principle

Trend analysis solves a universal problem: how do you distinguish between random fluctuation and meaningful directional change?

The core pattern:

Compare current values to historical baselines. Look for consistent direction across multiple data points. Filter out noise to reveal the underlying trajectory.

Where else this applies:

Team performance - Tracking whether output is consistently improving or declining.
Process efficiency - Detecting when time-to-complete is trending longer.
Quality metrics - Watching error rates over releases to catch degradation early.
Resource usage - Identifying when capacity is trending toward limits.
Try It

See trend analysis in action

Click on a data series to analyze its trend direction over the 7 data points.

Select a Data Series

Trend Analysis

Select a series to analyze

How It Works

Three approaches to finding direction in data

Moving Averages

Smooth out the noise

Instead of looking at each data point, you look at the average of the last N points. A 7-day moving average smooths out daily variation. Compare today's average to last week's average to see direction.

Strength

Simple to implement and explain

Limitation

Lags behind sudden changes

Linear Regression

Find the best-fit line

Draw the line that best fits your data points. The slope of that line is your trend. Positive slope means increasing. Negative means decreasing. The steeper the slope, the stronger the trend.

Strength

Quantifies trend strength with a single number

Limitation

Assumes linear relationships

Period-over-Period Comparison

Compare like to like

Compare this week to last week. This month to last month. This quarter to last quarter. Calculate the percentage change and track whether that change is consistently positive or negative.

Strength

Intuitive and easy to communicate

Limitation

Sensitive to seasonal variations

Connection Explorer

How trend analysis connects to better decisions

Trend analysis sits between raw data storage and actionable intelligence. It transforms time-series data into directional signals that drive prioritization and alerting.

Hover over any component to see what it does and why it's neededTap any component to see what it does and why it's needed

Aggregation
Time-Series Storage
Trend Analysis
You Are Here
Anomaly Detection
Priority Scoring
Proactive Decisions
Outcome
React Flow
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Data Infrastructure
Understanding
Outcome

Animated lines show direct connections · Hover for detailsTap for details · Click to learn more

Upstream (Requires)

AggregationTime-Series Storage

Downstream (Enables)

Anomaly DetectionPriority Scoring
Common Mistakes

What breaks when trend analysis goes wrong

Don't confuse a single spike with a trend

One week of high numbers doesn't mean you're on an upward trend. It might be an anomaly. You need multiple data points moving in the same direction to call it a trend.

Instead: Require at least 3 consecutive data points in the same direction before calling it a trend.

Don't ignore seasonality

January is always slower than December. If you compare January to December, you'll see a 'decline' that isn't real. You're comparing different seasons, not detecting a trend.

Instead: Compare same period to same period. This January vs. last January. This Monday vs. last Monday.

Don't look at too short a window

Yesterday was up from the day before. Is that a trend? No, that's noise. Short windows are dominated by random variation, not meaningful direction.

Instead: Match your analysis window to your decision timeframe. Weekly decisions need weekly trends, not daily.

Next Steps

Now that you understand trend analysis

You've learned how to extract direction from sequential data. The natural next step is using those trends to detect when something unusual is happening.

Recommended Next

Anomaly Detection

How to spot when a data point breaks from the established trend